Effects of climate change on wildlife distribution, habitat suitability, population dynamics, and species survival: A synthesis of current evidence

Abstract

Climate change is now a dominant force reshaping the geographic distribution, habitat suitability, demographic performance, and long-term survival prospects of wild species across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine realms. This review synthesises peer-reviewed evidence on four interlinked dimensions of ecological response: (i) documented shifts in species ranges toward higher latitudes, elevations, and depths; (ii) the use and limitations of correlative habitat suitability and species distribution models for projecting future range change; (iii) climate-driven alterations to population dynamics, including phenological mismatch, demographic decline, and the compounding effects of extreme events and habitat fragmentation; and (iv) quantitative assessments of extinction risk, illustrated through case evidence from polar, alpine, and coral-reef systems. Across taxa, range shifts are broadly consistent with a warming climate but vary substantially with species traits, dispersal capacity, and landscape connectivity, producing a widening “climate debt” between the pace of climatic change and the realised responses of many species. Population-level consequences are frequently mediated by interacting, non-climatic stressors such as habitat fragmentation and land-use change, complicating attribution. Meta-analytic evidence indicates that a meaningful proportion of assessed species face elevated extinction risk under continued warming, with risk accelerating non-linearly at higher temperature thresholds. The review identifies persistent evidence gaps—particularly for tropical, freshwater, and range-interior populations—and outlines adaptation-oriented conservation responses, including climate-informed protected-area design and landscape connectivity. No new empirical data were generated; all quantitative figures cited are drawn from previously published sources.